By peter Amunga.
The ANC party leader and former Vice President H.E. Musalia Mudavadi delivered a very strong worded message at a church service last weekend on why Kenyan leaders should take COVID 19 seriously, must be highlighted and given prominence.
The ANC party leader was spot on. He was spot on when he pointed out the following
1] That neglecting to take care of our front line health care workers is a bad idea. Neglecting their concerns to such extent that they may walk out of the job in 14 days is a terrible idea. This issue now requires urgent attention.
2] That the December holiday period will present lots of super spreader opportunities. It could end up being community spread on steroids. December is 6 days away. This issue now requires urgent attention.
3] That our infection rate [read positivity rate] has climbed back to dangerous levels. It suggests that the virus is running wild and running rough shod over our best efforts at containment. The war plan needs to be revisited. This issue also now requires urgent attention.
The acceptable threshold for positivity rate is not 12%, but rather 5%. And it needs to stay below 5% for at least 2 weeks.
World Health Organization (WHO) advised governments that before reopening, rates of positivity in testing (ie, out of all tests conducted, how many came back positive for COVID-19) of should remain at 5% or lower for at least 14 days. ~ John Hopkins University, Coronavirus Resource Center.
According to Ministry of Health data, the last time we had a positivity rate below 5% was 12 October 2020. Before that it was 5 October 2020.
Again, according to the same data, in the month of September, we had 16 days below 5%. However, we never had more than 4 consecutive days below 5%.
Based on MOH data, the trends for December do not look promising. The trends suggest that we need to make some adjustments. And these adjustments need to be effected … while the going is still good.
That said, the ANC party leader is spot in all material respects.
The time to take decisive action is now. If we act decisively now, we can save hundreds of lives in 2021, by reducing excess deaths attributable to Covid-19.
If we truly hope to flatten the 2nd wave curve – to avert an even bigger crisis in 2021 – we must fight hard now.This must start from the top political, spiritual and academic leadership in Kenya.
The writer Peter Amunga is a political commentator and writer.