The point Manyora was trying to make is that Musalia Mudavadi is not kingpin of Western because both @UDA and @ODM got more than 50% in Matungu. That Mudavadi cannot get similar significant votes from Siaya. Now, when listening to the clip, one may be tempted to imagine that Manyora is right. But when put into perspective backed with Empirical research and data, we see the gaps.
According to STATISTICIAN DR Oyombe, The deciding factor of election outcome in Matungu was the clan issue. Abashitsetse and Abakoe voted largely for Nabulindo. These are the dominant clans in Wanga. The other dimension is that Were is perceived to be of Luo origin. Matungu is 35 percent Luo speakers. Were’s votes largely came from small clans like Abamurono, Abachero, that have deep connections with Luos. There are over 100 clans in Matungu. There are also other tribes in the constituency – eg. Kikuyu. The clan dynamics played a great role. These can be seen in his report that was published days before the byelection.
We must also remember that David Were the ODM candidate was MP for Matungu for 15 years. Manyora failed to capture this, that an INCUMBENT in an election vying on whichever party has great influence. There are communities that benefitted when he was MP, businessmen, contractors and his net works were still vibrant.
We must take into account that in 2017 David Were was a Jubilee Candidate and garnered 8K votes. This time round he was an ODM candidate and he just added 2000 votes. Needless to mention it means this was a candidate who had SUPPORT from different dynamics.
The other factor that Manyora failed to capture was the governor Oparanya factor in the election. Gov. Oparanya who garnered 42K votes in Matungu 2017 was expected to transfer the same votes to his candidate in the byelection. Question is where did this votes disappear to?
Finally, my brother Manyora failed to say something about the violence and corruption witnessed in Matungu last week. Unless you are not a KENYAN, you will know that corruption influences an election. Voter bribery was at a higher notch in Matungu.
A byelection cannot be used to gauge and draw conclusions the way Manyora did. Let Manyora withdrawal his claims.
By Amunga Peter.