By Amunga Peter
Social media is groaning under the weight of lamentations from ODM and Tangatanga over their loss of the Matungu byelection.
The lamentations have been loudest from their BLOGGERS. Alai Robert has been crying with tweets. So has Dennis Itumbi. Latest to join us Wafula Buke. In his lamenting, Buke writes.. and I quote.
‘ … I learned firsthand how the Matungu by elections were going to be rigged in favor of the ANC two days b4 voting. I tried calling Raila to give him specifics but got his bodyguard.
I called Nabwera Nabii but he couldn’t be reached. I drowned into the pain of betrayal… “
It is very important for people to express their opinions and infact everyone is entitled to his/her opinion.
But Statistician Dr. Oyombe who one month prior the election made a research and an opinion poll for Matungu ELECTIONS differs with them. THIS morning answered the lamentators by saying and I quote..
” … I can swear by the bible that the Matungu by-election was a true expression of the will of the people. During my survey, the proportions expressing preference for the candidates remained consistent from as low as 200 respondent’s up to 1000 interviews. This convergence is reflected in the votes cast. I can argue that attempts to rig didn’t succeed. This would have changed the proportions significantly. Again, what it shows is that as much as money was dished out, voters remained committed to vote for their desired candidates… “
The law of large numbers in statistics remains a clear pointer of the relationship between a sample and the population. Hence,
There are points which the lamentators need to conscider before showing their ignorance on media.
- Nabulindo of ANC emanated from the biggest clans of Abashitsetse. His top competition were labeled to be outsiders.
- Being a by election with no fresh voter registration combined with voter apathy associated with it, numbers were lower.
- The big wigs and politicians that arrived in Matungu with big bags ofmoney from all over the country would /could have been in their constituencies camped in Matungu.